The United States, China, and India are the ones courting the only shop that can print the densest transistors. Customers such as TSMC and Samsung already run those tools. Europe’s own Chips Act, live since 2023 after the pandemic shortage, was supposed to lift the continent’s share of global chip output. The European Court of Auditors already said the 2030 “double the share” dream is unlikely. Demand speeches are cheap. Cleanrooms are not.

That is the civic-market read. When the executive who works the capitals says the order book for Europe is empty, the tape is not about a press release from the Commission — it is about whether Ursula von der Leyen’s industrial green-and-gold bureaucracy can turn a statute into concrete. The progressive industrial-policy set sold “strategic autonomy” as a slogan. ASML’s public-affairs desk just scored the receipt: zero machines, zero new European foundries worth the name.

In Den Haag the file sits on the same desk as export control, defence, and the budget. Rob Jetten holds the premiership for D66 — the liberal left that loves climate targets and EU frameworks more than it loves pouring concrete for a mega-fab. Defence vice-premier Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius (VVD) owns the hard-power brief while the real AI arms race runs through lithography and power. Finance minister Eelco Heinen (VVD) can talk fiscal space; Foreign minister Tom Berendsen (CDA) can talk partners. None of that prints a wafer if Europe will not build the plant.

Geert Wilders and the PVV have spent years calling out Brussels process theater. ASML’s warning hands them a hard-industry example: when the left-leaning EU industrial complex cannot land a single domestic machine sale for the crown jewel of Dutch tech, the “resilience” pitch is a slide deck, not a supply chain.

Outside Europe the buyers are not waiting. Washington under Donald J. Trump treats advanced chips as national power. Beijing under Xi Jinping treats domestic capacity as survival. India is writing cheques. Europe is rewriting the Chips Act. Heemskerk’s line is the blunt market note: ASML will go where the factories are.

On PolitiCap that is a civic stake, not a casino tip. Tickers on LEYENU, the Dutch cabinet names above, and the great-power pair mark who owns the industrial politics while the lithography leaves the continent. DutchBud settles the game in dibs on a closed-loop fintech rail — a digital bank book for civic positions, not a licensed open-banking product and not a cash-out slot. Read the tape, mark the book, grade the Chips Act on fabs built, not speeches filed.

Source: NL Times (ANP). Rewritten for the PolitiCap game.